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Historically, those are difficult to duplicate.. Again, FPI doesn't think the division is much-improved. This team just wasn't ready yet. So their overall grade suffered. The team that benefited from Norwood's egregious error, the New York Giants, was not particularly exceptional. 15. Kam Chancellor should have been MVP. Wait, Dilfer isn't iconic. They had an unimpressive 115 record, but the 2002 Raiders were a well-balanced, finely tuned machine. There's enough depth to get by. They stole all-pro center Corey Linsley from the Packers and drafted Rashawn Slater in the first round.. Maybe the biggest forgotten gem in sports history. This would have been yet another classic Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl if Neil ODonnell didnt throw the game away. An 115 team that didn't exceed in anything, but had John Elway. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all rank in the top half of the most difficult schedules. Something for everyone interested in hair, makeup, style, and body positivity. Oh yeah, Marino's offense averaged 32.1 points per game, too. The Colts have the third worst odds at +15000, while the Texans have the worst overall odds at +30000. With that criteria in mind, weve ranked every Super Bowl ever played from worst to first. The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City's level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. San Francisco's three games based on last year's standings are against the Eagles, Bengals and Falcons, who all rank 24th or worse in FPI. It featured the great comeback, the only overtime in Super Bowl history, not one but two spectacular catches and a fascinating chess match between the Falcons and Patriots coaching staffs. You can make a case that every team that endured the best shots from every one of their opponents throughout the season, found a way to win enough If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. The NFL didn't have a full season due to a strike, so it is hard to put a 72 team ahead of others. Baltimore has a unique spot on this list because its inclusion is not based on mediocre talent (it had players like Bubba Smith and Johnny Unitas) or that it struggled to win games (the Colts went 11-2-1). So its only fitting that the winner of Super Bowl 53 will have a defense that finished the regular season below the league average. Los Angeles Rams +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total). Im more likely to become a billionaire than the Texans are to finish above .500, much less win the Super Bowl this season. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. That's ridiculous. This unit -- like the offense -- has the potential to be an elite group. Matt Rhule is building something in Carolina as he enters his second year, taking a chance he can resurrect Sam Darnold's career. They faced perfection, so how can you be harsh when talking about them? Thats NFL history. Just as importantly, no team lost more games to injury last year than the 49ers, And thats at every position. As a Jets fan, I could build a flimsy case for the Jets to make the playoffs; I cant even fathom them having a shot at the Super Bowl. It did earn him a bunch of money. With a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are a bit above average for the league's favorite heading into the season. Will this be the first time for everything?. The most interesting thing about this Super Bowl remains Hank Strams micd up footage. With a hostage crisis in Iran taking attention away from the game, the Raiders and Eagles made sure Americans too concerned to tune into a football game didnt miss much. Ron Jaworski, Harold Carmichael, and Wilbert Montgomery all had a part in this offense. 3) Only one of their final seven opponents has a season win total under 8.5. Las Vegas Raiders +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total), One of the most dysfunctional teams in the league, the Raiders once again scream "stay away. This is how good the NFC West is: There's a 37% chance that three of the four teams reach the playoffs, and there's even a 3% chance that all four get in. that each ranks in the top 10. For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. 12. Not to mention, Reggie White wrecking people on defense. Not every team epitomizes greatness and dominance when it is victorious in the Super Bowl. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. Jacksonville Jaguars +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total), "Dont tell me what you think tell me whats in your portfolio. Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones. One playoff win and taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink last season opened opportunities for the Browns, who possess one of the most talented rosters in the conference. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the Superbowl, but they didnt score many touch The game wasnt nearly as close as the score indicates, though. Buffalo is on the doorstep of reaching the league championship game, thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the game's best quarterbacks. The model gains confidence because of all of the returning starters from an already good unit. Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. The 1970s Steelers gave us one last entertaining Super Bowl before its dynasty ended. If the Kansas City Chiefs didn't have a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid, the Bills would have reached their first Super Bowl in 27 years. Losing three offensive linemen is gonna sting. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). This Super Bowl had it all: An underdog story (Nick Foles), a memorable play (Philly Special), a controversial coaching decision (Belichick benching Malcolm Butler), a ton of points (a record 74 points combined!) Denver came in with a historically good offense. That doesn't even sound like a real record, let alone a division winner. Matt Ryan was an MVP and led the best offense, but the defense surrendered 25.4 points per game. Theyve won 35 regular-season games in the last three seasons for a reason., When narratives build for example, that Lamar Jackson cant win in the playoffs you can find an edge fading them., 1. But it wasn't always so certain that FPI would give Green Bay the love. A fullback even if it was Hall of Famer Larry Csonka winning MVP tells you just how entertaining this one was. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. By Jason McIntyreFOX Sports Betting Analyst. Kind of pains me to say it, but it was the 2011 Giants. They shipped 400 points that year in the regular season and normally that leads to a losing Maybe the most controversial one on the list. Division favorites, win totals and the NFL's best (and worst) teams: Takeaways from the 2021 projections, The future of the NFL combine: Is there really a chance it could end forever? New York's passing attack was somewhere between awful and mediocre. The Bills could not close the deal in this four-year span, and most frustrating of all, all these teams were pretty well-balanced. The Chiefs win Those first three are the Broncos' first three games of the season, an easy slate right off the bat. That being said, wait until they lose the opener to Tampa, and then get them at possibly better odds. 3 overall pick Trey Lance entering the season. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Buffalo is in position to make another deep playoff run this season. Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. Poor Bengal fans will never watch a 49ers game with a smile (unless they're losing). The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. They were the 3rd best scoring offense in the league, but 28th on defense. The Bears defensive dominance made a 36-point laugher worth watching. A better offensive line will help Cousins out immensely, especially with playmakers like Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielenand Irv Smith. According to statistics, the 2011 New York Giants. Which is funny considering the team they beat, the 2011 Patriots, would have also been the worst OK, so this game was never in doubt, this was Bill Walshs 49ers dynasty at its apex. Michael Strahan and Keith Hamilton combined for 19.5 sacks, and the team had 44 total. Washington, despite being the reigning champ and making an improvement at quarterback in the form of Ryan Fitzpatrick, is second (29%), followed by the Giants (15%) and Eagles (11%). They are part of the legacy of the biggest game in sports, and they had fought hard an entire winning season. As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies -- the Jaguars' Lawrence and the Jets' Wilson -- are their respective teams' current starters. Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. IMPORTANT NOTE: I used my own mathematical point system involving team records, offensive production, and defensive production to determine the order. Granted, having Simms on the field would have undoubtedly bolstered the Giants offensive attack in the postseason, but this is not a countdown of "what ifs" and "should have beens.". 18. Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. For a team with quarterback uncertainty, it could be much worse. With a 131 record, this Oakland Raiders team would be higher, but not as good as some of the other late '60s losing teams. What will the Buffalo Bills do without defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier? 6) Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Here is a quarterback guru who never could quite develop a quarterback as a head coach. Why? ", Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. Defensively, they were 22nd in points scored against, and it showed in the Super Bowl. The best chance they had and they were wide right. The Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos have been involved in some of the worst Super Bowls, but so have the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys. The same model expects Wentz to improve considerably off last season but not all the way back to pre-2020 levels. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. 1 pick. Which one is the most likely to remove itself from this dubious list? There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. 29. The AFC North features two major Super Bowl threats in Baltimore and Cleveland. 6-keys: media/spln/nfl/reg/free/stories, at They also secured the first ring in franchise history. Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) Both teams have two of the most talented rosters in the league and look to make an even deeper playoff run -- finally attempting to end title droughts that have lasted more than a half-century. The Chiefs defense also surrendered 31 points. ), and every Texans opponent's win total is inflated for the same reason. Twelve franchises have never captured a Super Bowl title. Watch more top videos, highlights, and B/R original content, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. 10 wins in a 14-game season, and this was easily the least impressive of Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl. Brett Favre was brilliant in his only Super Bowl win. Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater. It also gave us the first and only Super Bowl blackout. The Titans defense added Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley, but it may not be enough to make the the 24th-ranked unit (in points allowed) Super Bowl-caliber. Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. With quarterback Dak Prescott back and the possibility of an offensive line returned to full strength, the Cowboys are the division favorites with a 45% shot to win it. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense The Bills ended up with the most wins in a season (13) since 1991.